Business

Crude Oil rises to $126.73 despite falling global petrol and diesel prices

The Crystal Clear LENS 4 weeks ago 3 min read

International crude oil prices rose by 2.03% to US$126.73 per barrel in the October 16, 2026, pricing window, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping heightened concerns about global oil supplies.

The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), in its latest petroleum price outlook, attributed the increase to renewed supply concerns, including attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh security threats linked to the conflict involving the United States and Iran.

The developments have prompted some empty supertankers to halt or turn away from the Persian Gulf, increasing uncertainty over the movement of crude oil shipments through the strategic waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy trade, making disruptions in the area a major concern for oil producers, traders and importing countries.

Despite the rise in crude oil prices, refined petroleum products recorded mixed movements during the latest pricing window.

RankMind

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Data from the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) show that international diesel prices fell by 6.68%, from US$1,516.05 to US$1,414.78 per metric tonne.

Petrol prices also declined by 3.93%, moving from US$1,306.38 to US$1,255.05 per metric tonne.

LPG prices, however, increased by 7.77%, rising from US$778.98 to US$839.50 per metric tonne.

The differences in price movements reflect the distinct supply and demand conditions affecting crude oil and individual refined petroleum products.

The report also highlighted a slowdown in forecasts for global oil demand.

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The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from its earlier projection of 1.4 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, expects demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day.

At the same time, OPEC+ production increased by 900,000 barrels per day to 39.07 million barrels per day in September, according to the figures cited in the report.

The IEA is also calling for additional releases from emergency oil stocks to help ease diesel shortages.

Saudi Aramco plans to increase its capacity to transport oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz from seven million to 10 million barrels per day by 2030.

Developments on the international market are particularly significant for Ghana, which relies on imported petroleum products and remains exposed to movements in global prices and foreign exchange rates.

COMAC’s report puts the exchange rate at GH¢11.8221 to the US dollar for the October 16 pricing indicator, compared with GH¢11.6211 in the October 1 indicator.

The depreciation increases the amount of cedis required to purchase petroleum products priced in dollars, potentially limiting the benefits of falling international petrol and diesel prices.

For the second half of October, COMAC projects petrol pump prices to decline by between 1.20% and 1.67%, while diesel prices could fall by 2.60% to 3.32%.

LPG prices, however, are projected to increase by 16.98% to 18.50%, according to the report’s outlook section.

The projected adjustments underline the complex relationship between crude oil prices, refined-product markets, exchange rates and local fuel prices.

For Ghana, the direction of pump prices will depend not only on global supply developments but also on the performance of the cedi, local pricing decisions and the government’s temporary intervention in diesel pricing.